‘On again, off again’: Taipei wary of Beijing’s incentives to boost cross-strait exchanges

TAIPEI – Taiwan’s tourism sector may soon welcome more Chinese tourists, while Taiwanese farmers and fishermen could be given easier access to the lucrative Chinese market – and they would have the island’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), to thank for it.

The measures were part of a list of 10 new economic, travel and cultural incentives for Taiwan proposed by Beijing on April 12, just two days after KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s closely watched meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in his capacity as general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Their meeting was the first in a decade between the two parties’ leaders amid tense cross-strait relations in the 10 years of rule under the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Beijing, which considers Taiwan its own territory, sees the DPP as a separatist force. 

By framing the DPP as a barrier to prosperity while boosting the KMT as the only party capable of working with China to reduce tension, especially in an election year, analysts said, Beijing’s new policies are designed to exacerbate internal political divisions in Taiwan.

The island is set to hold key local elections in November – seen as a critical mid-term bellwether and strategic foundation for the 2028 presidential election. 

While specific groups on the island may stand to benefit from Beijing’s new proposals, the broader public will likely remain cautious, given how such exchanges come with political preconditions, with memories of China’s “on again, off again” economic coercion tactics still fresh in their minds. 

Cross-strait tourism, for instance, has remained largely frozen since August 2019, when Beijing banned individual travel permits for Chinese visitors to the island, citing the state of relations between the two sides.

China’s unexpected move at that time was widely seen as an attempt to hurt the chances of then President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP being re-elected in January 2020.

In 2024, Beijing partially resumed cross-strait travel for residents of Fujian – the Chinese province closest to Taiwan – to travel to Taiwan’s outlying Matsu and Kinmen islands. The measure was announced following a visit to Beijing by a KMT delegation.

“China’s political prerequisites show that its proposed exchanges, as well as its trade and economic measures, are not simple interactions,” said Dr Hung Pu-chao, a cross-strait relations expert at Tunghai University’s Center for Mainland China and Regional Development Research in Taiwan. 

“The true objective of China’s new measures is to sow division in Taiwan by creating a narrative that the government is obstructing exchanges and hindering development,” he added. 

In its proposals, unveiled by the official Xinhua news agency, Beijing said that the CPC and the KMT will take “stronger measures” to promote cross-strait exchanges, interaction and integration. These would be on the common political foundation of adhering to the 1992 Consensus – a tacit agreement at the time between the two sides that there is one China with each side having a different interpretation of what this means – and opposing Taiwan independence. 

A mechanism would also be established to ease inspection standards for Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products, but that has to be on the same political foundation of opposing Taiwan independence, Xinhua added.

Dr Hung said: “China is attempting to establish a channel for dialogue that bypasses Taiwan’s democratically elected government, with the goal of cultivating a specific perception – any political party willing to accept China’s political framework can serve as a vehicle for cross-strait interaction.” 

Beijing refuses to speak to the government of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, whom it labels a “dangerous separatist”.

But it regularly welcomes officials from the KMT, which advocates cross-strait dialogue based on the so-called 1992 Consensus, which paved the way for cross-strait talks in 1993 when the KMT was in government. This framework, which Beijing sees as the basis for cross-strait interaction, is rejected by Mr Lai and the ruling DPP.

Other proposed incentives include allowing Taiwanese television dramas, documentaries and animation to be aired in China as long as they have “correct orientation” and “healthy content”. Taiwanese would be able to take part in China’s fast-growing micro-drama industry.

Tourists from Shanghai as well as Fujian province would be allowed to travel to the island again, while more cross-strait flights would resume.

“Travel companies and other businesses would be happy about these measures, but many Taiwanese would be more wary,” said Associate Professor Chen Shih-min, a political science analyst at National Taiwan University. 

“Beijing has used this ‘on again, off again’ economic strategy against Taiwan so many times, so people know that they’re not sincere offers,” he added. 

China has often alternated between punitive economic measures and sudden incentives after the DPP came to power.

Ahead of the last presidential election in 2024, Beijing abruptly halted imports of Taiwanese mangoes citing pest concerns, shortly after then Vice-President Lai’s trip to the US. China also ended preferential tariff rates for 12 petrochemical products a month before the vote, explicitly linking the move to the DPP’s “separatist position”. Neither of these punitive measures has been rolled back.  

In any case, it is unclear how Beijing’s new round of proposals would be implemented without the approval of Taiwan’s government.

In a statement on April 12, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said that Beijing’s “unilateral concessions were sugar-coated poison disguised as gift packages”.  Any cross-strait matters must be negotiated between the two sides’ governments based on parity and dignity to be effective, and to protect the rights and well-being of the people, the council added. 

“The government supports healthy and orderly cross-strait exchanges,” said the council. “However, any exchange measures should not be accompanied by political preconditions or objectives, nor should they become bargaining chips for political transactions between specific political parties.”